Friday, September 22, 2006
How Low will real estate go?
This was the title to an article featured on MSN, provided by Forbes.com. Again, here is the sensationalism of the media in action!
They have quoted the economist Mark Zandi as saying :"The boom is definitely over, there's no debate about that, Now the question is more how hard is it going to land, if it lands at all.". The truly interesting part to consider is the fact, of what does he mean by "..if it lands at all"? Has anyone ever seen a home sell for 1 dollar? I know I sure haven't, but I sure have seen stocks that sold for over $100 sell for less than $5!
Slanting of the Article
Everyone should be able to construct their own opinion of the real estate market without the slant of negativity or overwhelmingly positive information. While the author quotes Zandi as the truth teller of the market, she judges the opinion of the economist from NAR. Her opening sentence when quoting Lawrence Yun, a senior economist for NAR, is the fact that "Not suprisingly" he has a "more optimistic" outlook. Hmmm, I wonder what she is trying to say? While she made an effort to quote two difference economists, she definitely wants everyone to believe the worst case scenario.
Appreciation Rates
While the overall tone of the article is negative, oddly enough data tells the real story! Sadly many people only read headlines which contributes to the panic. When one reads the table of data for our southern California Real Estate market on the 10 year horizon you will find the following:
They have quoted the economist Mark Zandi as saying :"The boom is definitely over, there's no debate about that, Now the question is more how hard is it going to land, if it lands at all.". The truly interesting part to consider is the fact, of what does he mean by "..if it lands at all"? Has anyone ever seen a home sell for 1 dollar? I know I sure haven't, but I sure have seen stocks that sold for over $100 sell for less than $5!
Slanting of the Article
Everyone should be able to construct their own opinion of the real estate market without the slant of negativity or overwhelmingly positive information. While the author quotes Zandi as the truth teller of the market, she judges the opinion of the economist from NAR. Her opening sentence when quoting Lawrence Yun, a senior economist for NAR, is the fact that "Not suprisingly" he has a "more optimistic" outlook. Hmmm, I wonder what she is trying to say? While she made an effort to quote two difference economists, she definitely wants everyone to believe the worst case scenario.
Appreciation Rates
While the overall tone of the article is negative, oddly enough data tells the real story! Sadly many people only read headlines which contributes to the panic. When one reads the table of data for our southern California Real Estate market on the 10 year horizon you will find the following:
- Estimated Median Price in the 2nd Quarter of 2016 for Los Angeles - $667,048, or a 24% increase!
- Estimated Median Price in the 2nd Quarter of 2016 for San Diego - $856,067, or a 37% increase!
You be the judge of the real estate market!
Labels: Real Estate Fall
Sunday, September 17, 2006
Real Estate Market Exaggerating Itself
An article was published in the Press Telegram online edition on the 11th of September regarding the reality of the market in regards to agents leaving the business and offices closing. It is the widely held opinion that the market is doing so poorly that offices are closing.
Offices Closing
The article does a good job of pointing out what is really going on. Many people thought a local Realty Executives office on Bellflower Blvd closed due to lack of business. In realty this office moved from 6170 Bellflower to 5822 Adenmoor Ave. In fact in it's place a Century 21 office just opened!
Agents Contribute to the Rumors
The agent community often contributes to the panic themselves. With many agents' production numbers being lower than the previous year they speculate that the problems are affecting everyone. Many realtors speculate that people just aren't buying. An indicator that demonstrates affordability released by the California Association of Realtors shows that affordability is at 23 percent statewide and as high as 39 percent in desert regions. With these numbers more education just needs to get out to both realtors and buyers to help them purchase using First Time Buyer Programs and realize they can get the home that is right for them.
You be the judge of the real estate market!
Offices Closing
The article does a good job of pointing out what is really going on. Many people thought a local Realty Executives office on Bellflower Blvd closed due to lack of business. In realty this office moved from 6170 Bellflower to 5822 Adenmoor Ave. In fact in it's place a Century 21 office just opened!
Agents Contribute to the Rumors
The agent community often contributes to the panic themselves. With many agents' production numbers being lower than the previous year they speculate that the problems are affecting everyone. Many realtors speculate that people just aren't buying. An indicator that demonstrates affordability released by the California Association of Realtors shows that affordability is at 23 percent statewide and as high as 39 percent in desert regions. With these numbers more education just needs to get out to both realtors and buyers to help them purchase using First Time Buyer Programs and realize they can get the home that is right for them.
You be the judge of the real estate market!
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
Homes Staying on the Market - Prices Falling?
Median Days on Market
The media is fond of saying that there is rampant inventory and that homes are staying on the market an extremely long time. A report provided by Fidelity National Title with information supported by the California Association of Realtors shows the median days on market is just 35.4 days. If that number is reason for concern take into consideration that the median days on market in 1991 was over 90 days!
Unsold Inventory
The amount of unsold inventory is currently at 6.3 months. For those of you concerned that it might indicate a massive fallout similar to 1991, have no fear. In 1991 the unsold inventory index was actually 28 months!
Prices are Falling
Prices in fact haven't fallen when compared to numbers from last year. In fact if you visit www.Car.org you can find that prices from July of last year to July of this year prices have increased 6.8%.
You be the judge of the real estate market!
The media is fond of saying that there is rampant inventory and that homes are staying on the market an extremely long time. A report provided by Fidelity National Title with information supported by the California Association of Realtors shows the median days on market is just 35.4 days. If that number is reason for concern take into consideration that the median days on market in 1991 was over 90 days!
Unsold Inventory
The amount of unsold inventory is currently at 6.3 months. For those of you concerned that it might indicate a massive fallout similar to 1991, have no fear. In 1991 the unsold inventory index was actually 28 months!
Prices are Falling
Prices in fact haven't fallen when compared to numbers from last year. In fact if you visit www.Car.org you can find that prices from July of last year to July of this year prices have increased 6.8%.
You be the judge of the real estate market!
Monday, September 11, 2006
House Price Isn't Right? - LA Times - Sunday - 9/10
In the Real Estate Section of the Los Angeles Times on Sunday, the 10th of September the featured article states "the House Price isn't Right!" mimicking the popular game show the Price is Right.
This article makes a discussion of timing the real estate market and taking a "wait and see" attitude to the housing market. If they want to discuss timing the real estate market, they might as well take their odds and try timing the stock market too! Although they do quote DataQuick to provide their statisical opinion of the market softening, they definitely choose convenient numbers to use.
This article makes a discussion of timing the real estate market and taking a "wait and see" attitude to the housing market. If they want to discuss timing the real estate market, they might as well take their odds and try timing the stock market too! Although they do quote DataQuick to provide their statisical opinion of the market softening, they definitely choose convenient numbers to use.
- 2005 was a record for real estate in volume of sales
- Since 2005 was a record year, wouldn't it be likely that the following year be lower?
Median Sales Price "Dip"
- DataQuick states that the median home price dipped from $493,000 in June to $492,000 in July
- Wow, an entire .002% move...that's just crazy! The stock market indexes move much more than that in a single day, yet the LA Times wants you to think this is monumental.
Quoting the "expert"
The LA Times is fond of getting someone to agree with them. Enter, Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. He is quoted as saying "Prices are going to be a little weaker a year from now...".
- Well he hasn't been right on the market in a number of years. You know who has predicted the appreciation and the fall in the 1990's?
- Answer: Economist Gary Watts
- You won't see Gary Watts quoted in the LA times though because he actually has the market finishing up 6.1% this year!
You be the judge of the real estate!
